On the afternoon of September 2nd, at the press conference before the international semiconductor exhibition SEMICON TAIWAN 2024, Zeng Ruiyu, Senior Director of Industry Research at SEMI, analyzed the development trend of the global semiconductor market and predicted that global semiconductor revenue is expected to grow by 20% in 2024, with artificial intelligence (AI) chips and storage chips being the main growth drivers. In 2025, with the healthy recovery of demand in communication, industry, and automotive industries, semiconductor revenue is expected to increase by another 20% year-on-year.

Zeng Ruiyu pointed out that the sales of electronic devices in the first half of this year were about the same as the same period last year, and it is expected to increase by 4% annually in the third quarter. For the whole year, it will increase by 3% to 5%, slightly lower than the original estimate of 5% to 7%. In the first half of 2024, semiconductor revenue increased by over 20% compared to the same period last year. In addition to the rising prices and volumes of storage chips, AI chips are also a major growth driver.

Zeng Ruiyu said that excluding storage chips, semiconductor revenue will grow by about 10% this year. If AI related chip products are excluded, semiconductor revenue will only grow by 3% this year. With the inventory of supply chains such as communication, industry, and automotive approaching a low point, demand is expected to recover healthily next year, and semiconductor revenue has the opportunity to grow by 20% next year.

He pointed out that the capacity utilization rate of wafer fabs bottomed out in the first quarter of this year and gradually recovered in the second quarter. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will reach 70% in the third quarter and further recover in the fourth quarter.

Zeng Ruiyu stated that China's investment amount in the first half of this year surged by 90% compared to the same period last year, which does not meet market demand. The main concern is that the United States will adopt stricter regulations and actively build sufficient mature process capacity; Most of the investment in other countries decreased in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.

Zeng Ruiyu estimates that due to China's massive investment in geopolitical factors, the global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow slightly by 3% compared to last year, reaching $109.5 billion. Next year, driven by advanced logic chips and packaging testing, the equipment market will grow by 16% compared to this year, reaching a scale of $127.5 billion.

As for the semiconductor silicon wafer market, Zeng Ruiyu expects that the output of semiconductor silicon wafers is expected to grow quarter by quarter in the second half of this year. However, the total shipment volume may decrease by 3% this year and is expected to recover next year.